SPX 週度交易回顧｜2026-W41 [20261011-020345]

ENGLISH VERSION

1. Weekly price action & trading data

• Weekly gain & range: +88.82 points (+1.15% vs the Oct 2 close of 7,722.72); high–low range 116.93 points / 1.51% (high 7,844.52, low 7,727.59).
• Candlestick pattern: Monday's gap-up medium bullish candle → Tuesday's fresh 52-week intraday high (7,844.52) with a small bullish candle → Wednesday's FOMC-minutes-day fade from the highs (small bearish candle) → Thursday's pullback (−0.47%) on the week's heaviest volume (6.082B) → Friday's rebound (+0.59%) on the week's lightest volume (4.783B). An "up-down-up" week: bulls in control, but upside volume faded day by day while the down day expanded — weakening volume-price coordination.
• Event-to-candle mapping (daily level): Mon 10/05 (+0.66%) — ISM Services PMI day, gapped higher with volume confirming the move; Tue 10/06 (+0.58%) — August trade deficit + 3-year auction day, fresh 52-week intraday high, momentum carried over; Wed 10/07 (−0.22%) — FOMC September minutes (2:00 PM ET) + 10-year auction day, faded from intraday highs; Thu 10/08 (−0.47%) — jobless claims + 30-year auction day, heaviest volume of the week on high-level profit-taking; Fri 10/09 (+0.59%) — Michigan sentiment (prelim) day, light-volume rebound recouping roughly half of Thursday's loss.

2. Core technical signals

3. Composite polarity assessment

• Mix: Bullish 3 (50%) / Neutral 3 (50%) / Bearish 0 (0%) / Extreme overbought-oversold 0.
• Composite score: +3 / ±6 → Bullish-leaning (bullish +1, neutral 0, bearish −1).

4. Key levels — support & resistance

5. Wrap-up & next-week watch

• Bearish factors: KDJ's J at 87.71 signals short-term overheating; price is pressing the double resistance of the Bollinger upper band (7,852.68) and the 52-week high (7,844.52); Thursday's high-volume pullback (6.082B, the week's heaviest) shows profit-taking at highs; Friday's rebound came on the week's lightest volume (4.783B) — weakening volume confirmation; VIX at 14.84 is low while the 10-year yield at 5.24% caps valuations.
• Bullish factors: Textbook bullish MA alignment with the close above every average; MACD golden cross confirmed, histogram expanded to +11.13 — the trend flip is complete; RSI healthy, not overbought; PSY at 50.00 shows uncrowded psychology; a fresh 52-week high keeps trend momentum intact.
• Next week's key watches: A break of 7,844.52 (52-week high) / 7,852.68 (upper band) needs expanding volume, otherwise treat as a false breakout; below, watch the 7,794 (MA5) → 7,736 (MA10) support zone first, then 7,704 (middle band / MA20) on a deeper pullback; Wednesday's September CPI (8:30 AM ET) is the week's biggest event variable — volatility may compress ahead of it.

中文版 · TRADITIONAL CHINESE

一、本週 K 線走勢與交易數據回顧

• 週度漲跌與振幅：全週 +88.82 點（+1.15%，基準為 10/02 收盤 7,722.72）；高低點振幅 116.93 點／1.51%（高 7,844.52，低 7,727.59）。
• K 線型態：週一跳空上行收中陽 → 週二盤中創 52 週新高（7,844.52）收小陽 → 週三 FOMC 紀要日沖高回落收小陰 → 週四放量（60.82 億，本週最大）回調 −0.47% → 週五縮量（47.83 億，本週最小）反彈 +0.59%。整體「先揚後抑再揚」，多頭控盤，但上攻段量能逐日遞減、回調段放量，量價配合轉弱。
• 關鍵事件與當日 K 線對應（日線級別）：週一 10/05（+0.66%）ISM 服務業 PMI 公佈日，跳空開高、量能配合上行；週二 10/06（+0.58%）8 月貿易逆差＋3 年期公債拍賣日，盤中創 52 週新高，動能延續；週三 10/07（−0.22%）FOMC 9 月會議紀要（14:00 ET）＋10 年期公債拍賣日，沖高回落；週四 10/08（−0.47%）初請失業金＋30 年期公債拍賣日，全週最大成交量伴隨回調，高位獲利了結；週五 10/09（+0.59%）密大消費者信心初值公佈日，縮量反彈，收復週四約半數跌幅。

二、核心技術信號分析

三、技術指標極性分佈綜合評估

• 數量佔比：看漲 3（50%）／中性 3（50%）／看空 0（0%）／強烈超買超賣 0。
• 綜合多空評分：+3／±6 → 偏多（看漲 +1、中性 0、看空 −1）。

四、關鍵價位參考（支撐與阻力）

五、總結與下週展望

• 看空因素：KDJ 的 J 值達 87.71，短線動能過熱；價格逼近布林上軌（7,852.68）與 52 週高點（7,844.52）雙重壓力；週四放量回調（60.82 億為全週最大量）顯示高位有獲利了結賣壓；週五反彈成交量為全週最小（47.83 億），量價配合轉弱；VIX 14.84 處偏低位、10 年期美債收益率 5.24% 高位運行，對估值形成壓制。
• 看多因素：均線呈標準多頭排列，收盤站上全部均線；MACD 金叉確認、柱體擴大至 +11.13，多空轉換完成；RSI 三線健康未超買；PSY 50.00 顯示市場心理不擁擠；本週創 52 週新高，趨勢動能完整。
• 下週關鍵觀察點：7,844.52（52 週高）／7,852.68（布林上軌）突破必須配合量能放大，否則視為假突破；下方先看 7,794（MA5）→7,736（MA10）短線支撐帶，跌破則回測 7,704（布林中軌／MA20）；下週三 9 月 CPI（8:30 ET）是全週最大事件變量，事件前波動率可能壓縮。